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Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl coin toss bets at for both heads and tails. Since Super Bowl coin toss bettors roughly split between heads and tails, the sportsbook is essentially guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome. More traditional sports wagers work pretty much the same way. If, for example, a book gets a roughly even number of bettors that wager the favorite will cover and the favorite will not cover, it is guaranteed to make money. Of course, not every sports bet is a coin toss.
Unfortunately, bettors have no sure-fire way of knowing precisely which bets have positive expected value. As mentioned earlier, books set their lines based on decades of experience and substantial financial and human capital resources. A sportsbook operator uses this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that an average bettor cannot realistically replicate with nearly the same accuracy. If a bettor wants to make money long term, they should make looking dissecting expected value a part of their process.
Here are a few more tips that will help you do just that:. Lakers all received outsized attention from the media and sports fans in general. This contrarianism extends to not just teams, but sports and leagues themselves. When everyone at the sportsbook focuses on the Red Zone channel, the best value might very well be and usually is on the TV no one else is watching.
This sensation has carried over to the growing number of local sports betting markets. Most sportsbooks are owned by large, multi-national conglomerates that keep lines fairly consistent between markets, but value bettors should consider their local sportsbooks home teams when considering a bet, especially if they see value on their opponents.
Along with nationally popular franchises, bettors tend to love betting on the best teams. Underdogs cover point spreads just about as often as favorites. That being said, people pay far more attention to teams at the top of their league than those at the bottom, and betting dollars inherently flow toward the top because of this.
But that means that underdogs can sneak away extra value if bettors take the time to weigh their worth as the masses fawn over the heavy favorites. Though bettors should consider the values of both favorites and underdogs, more often than not, neither is worth a bet.
Once again, sportsbooks have a large advantage. On an NFL Sunday, many bettors will try their luck at every game of the day. Just like savvy shoppers may buy produce at one store and deli meats at another, sharp bettors shop around for the best lines. This is part of why sharps and the general sports betting public clamor for deep, competitive marketplaces that permit a dozen or more sportsbook licenses. Though opening lines are still on better footing than anything an average bettor could assign, initial values have not yet been molded by the sharps and later the masses to the form of their greatest efficiency or best value.
After the sharps and general public get through it, the value is usually lower than when it began. Only if you want a chance to break even long term. The sportsbook has every conceivable advantage, which is compounded further by the vig. The best and, for all intents and purposes, only way to counter is to try to find value bets. You and your bank account will be much better off doing so. Gambling problem?
About Contact. This site contains commercial content. What is EV? Cost of the Vig Virtually every retail and online sportsbook charges at least a 5 percent fee 4. How do I Calculate my Expected Value? Watch Out for Home Favorites. Be Wary of Heavy Favorites. Share Tweet Share. Nevada transfer Jordan Brown will need to pop to ensure Arizona's a top-half-of-the-league team in the Pac Miller brought it a litany of players with international backgrounds, the best of which is probably Lithuanian freshman Azuolas Tubelis.
Kenny Cooper at point guard rounds out a projected top offense. I like the fit. Obviously the biggest news here is, in August, we learned Marshall Henderson would return to his old stomping grounds to become a graduate manager for the team. Belmont : The OVC is good enough where it should be in the mix for two NCAA Tournament bids if the schedule doesn't get chopped to the point where that prevents real consideration.
I put Belmont atop the league because of multifaceted center Nick Muszynski and fellow all-league returnee Grayson Murphy. Casey Alexander's handled the job well, inheriting it from Rick Byrd. This Johnnies team is a bit monotonous at first glance, but a calling card of Anderson's over the years has been his ability to get his No.
The Spartans should be deep and have more reliability on O, especially if Miller improves his shot. Iowa State : Leading returning scorer Rasir Bolton will have a big impact on two programs this season. He'll of course be a major factor for ISU, but it was also Bolton coming out publicly in the summer and detailing allegations against former Penn State coach Pat Chambers that ultimately led to Chambers' resignation in October. The Cyclones will try to stave off consecutive sub-.
He was formerly outstanding with South Dakota State The Runnin' Rebels top option is Bryce Hamilton This could be Vegas' best team in eight seasons and figures to finish in the top four of the Mountain West. San Francisco : Who doesn't love a great power trio? Music, especially. They've got pizzazz, chemistry and gumption. Underground act to an extent, but those who know, know. The Huskies were last season, and in the eyes of league coaches, didn't appear to get much better in the elongated offseason.
This is a largely characterless roster due to high turnover. Ben Howland's next win will be his th. Loyola Chicago : Cameron Krutwig is or-so good games away from finishing off one of the best careers in the history of the program. Check this stat via the MVC: "Last year, he Krutwig became the first player in the storied history of the MVC to finish a season ranked in the top five in the league in scoring 5th- Pitt : It's going decently through two seasons under Jeff Capel, but expecting a jump in year three might be asking too much.
Xavier Johnson is a stud, but Pitt was pitiful on the boards last season and that will be tough to overhaul. Duquesne : These are turning into the golden years for Dukes hoops. The school hasn't been this good in hoops from a wins perspective in four decades. And to think, Keith Dambrot wasn't choice No.
Funny how it's worked out. Statistically the best rebounder Bonaventure : No exaggeration to say there aren't 20 coaches who could average NIT group at worst, and then if all return for , Bonaventure should be a top team. Wichita State : The Shockers are a team whose ranking could fluctuate by 40 points depending on whether or not Gregg Marshall is the coach by the time the season begins.
With no news on that front yet, the Shockers are ranked as though Marshall will be on the sideline. Grant McCasland's team can score on you in a variety of styles but wins by toying with your tempo. Auburn : I think it'll be a tough season on the Plains, and this is a lower projection than most you'll see with the Tigers. Bruce Pearl's got a rebuild on his hands lost all his starters , but at least there's Sharife Cooper, a freshman point guard with flair who was a blue-chip prospect.
Winthrop : Pat Kelsey was a runner-up to getting the Wake Forest job, but his consolation prize is coaching the favorites in the Big South. Burns leads a group of 11 players who return, putting the Eagles in position to be that No. Notre Dame : Mike Brey's team struggled mightily against top teams the past three seasons. Tulsa : Unless you root for a team in the American, chances are you have no idea Tulsa finished atop the AAC standings at the end of last season.
Expect Frank Haith to have a craggy defense again. Carm Maciariello went in his first season at his alma mater and has the Saints in a spot to make their first Big Dance in 11 years. In the offseason Maciariello created the Coaches 4 Change initiative, which produced one of the better educational websites about systemic racism you'll find. New Mexico State : Chris Jans continues to watch over among the very best mid-major programs.
NMSU has averaged The only schools averaging more wins in that span are Gonzaga To be clear: in the entire sport. Overwhelming WAC favorites again. Austin Peay : Matt Figger has uplifted the Govs to a place they seldom inhabit: top status. Senior Terry Taylor Teammate Jordyn Adams Georgia State : A win team last season, the Panthers have their three leading scorers back, led by all-league guard Kane Williams. In fact, GSU's got five of its six best players returning to the fold. Also a key player is Cincinnati transfer Eliel Nsoseme , whose toughness can solidify this group as the best in the Sun Belt.
Boise State : Leon Rice has made Boise State a consistent winner, having amassed a record in a decade. Senior wing Derrick Alston Jr. Northwestern : In talking with some other Big Ten coaches, the expectation is that Northwestern minimally wins six league games if they play 20 after taking only three a year ago because the young talent is unquestionably respected.
Kansas State : Bruce Weber is in eight seasons a better record than most thought he'd have and he's had a few teams that finished in the top six in the Big 12 after initially not being highly regarded. This season? Kansas State looks to have the weakest roster in the league as far as these eyes can tell. Yale : The first Ivy League team on the list. No one knows if the Ivy will be allowed to play this season on authority of its presidents , but there is little optimism that will be the case.
That said, I'm ranking all teams as if they would be able to play in Yale, even without its full reserves, shapes up as the best. VCU : Will probably be a fun-but-young team that stubs it toe a few too many times. A strong coaching staff will ensure VCU is never overlooked by its A counterparts.
Let's see if sophomore Nah'Shon Hyland can be a leader. Pepperdine : One of the most explosive, impressive mid-major players in America plays for the Waves. He really might average 25 points a night. Colgate : Jordan Burns is still the best Patriot League player.
Colgate, for the third year running, is still the best team. Question is, how many games will PL teams wind up playing? Boston College : Eagles will struggle to avoid finishing in the bottom three in the ACC due to losing five solid players off a win team.
But at least Wynston Tabbs is back from injury, and he gives BC some hope in a weird year. That means the Knights bring back just one starter. Stephen F. Will be tough to tell just how good this team is due to a lack of opportunities against legit teams. The best team at turning other teams over a whopping He's a center. That kind of thing is rare, but I love that it still happens on occasion at the mid-major level. A new AD adds to the urgency of the situation. Nevada : Can't see the Wolf Pack competing for a Mountain West title but I can see them being enough of a matchup problem to stay in the top half of the conference despite a year in roster limbo.
Sophomore Noah Friedel is next in line. Louisiana Tech : The definition of a very good mid-major program a season ago. Vermont : Still easily the best team in the America East and that will remain true despite losing maybe the best player in program history Anthony Lamb.
Georgia : Tom Crean's going to rely on three grad transfers and loses Anthony Edwards , which might be for the best for this team. But I'd expect this otherwise-young group to make a leap and be near the top 60 in my master rankings come fall of Rhode Island : Fatts Russell is still balling for the Rams, which makes the Rams a threat in every A game they play.
USF : Alexis Yetna is back after injuries kept him away for most of last season, and that's going to be so pivotal to the Bulls having a chance to finish. Harvard : Noah Kirkwood is probably the best wing option in the Ivy, and given how much Harvard lost from last season it wouldn't be outlandish to suggest he averages north of 20 points.
A ninth-place Pac finish would be wonderful. Colorado State : CSU has no seniors but returns four starters and needs to replace the best rebounder in league history, Nico Carvacho. Isaiah Stevens has some Mountain West star power. David Roddy could grow tremendously by February.
Georgetown : Patrick Ewing dealt with a horrible offseason. First he lost every good player he had. On Aug. None of that will make this season easier, as Georgetown is scaling a cliff in the Big East. Eastern Washington : The class of the Big Sky and the reigning league champs.
Travis DeCuire has a couple more seasons with this program before he's recruited to a bigger job. Washington State : The last team to win a men's D-I college basketball game in Wazzu knocked off Colorado shortly before the clock flipped to March 12 in the first round of the Pac tourney. Bradley : Reigning MVC tourney champs. Yep, some league tournaments wrapped before the coronavirus canceled college hoops. If Bradley can win the auto bid in the Valley it would be the first time in school history it won the league three straight years.
Ohio : Jeff Boals kept Stony Brook respectable, then went to his alma mater and has Ohio in a spot where it might be the best team in the MAC thanks to having Jason Preston -- potentially the league's top player. George Papas and Deion Hammond command a crew with speed and composure that won 18 games. Vanderbilt : Gets one more season of finishing last in the SEC with that being an expected but not accepted result. By next year Jerry Stackhouse knows real returns have to start showing.
ISU has four starters back, so they're the Valley's automatic-bid dark horse. Drake : Darian DeVries is off to a wonderful start with his first head-coaching gig. He's won 44 games in two seasons at maybe the hardest job in the Valley.
Roman Penn is arguably the best point guard in the conference. Liberty : The Flames have enough stability with point guards and combo guards to ensure they won't slip too far, if at all, in the ASUN. Everything starts with Tre Mitchell , who was overlooked nationally as a freshman stud A reminder that UCSB has a claim to the best name for a home arena in college basketball: the Gauchos play at the Thunderdome.
Home Fantasy Scores Schedule Standings. West Ham United Wolves. Home Podcasts Scores Schedule Standings. Utah Virginia Tech Washington Wisconsin. Purdue Syracuse Villanova Virginia Wisconsin. Redblacks Stampeders. Featured Teams. Bayern Munich Dortmund. Celtic Rangers. Toggle navigation Log In. By Sean McIndoe Feb 1, So what do you do?
We got to do that this weekend, as the hockey gods decided to serve up some serious Saturday night star power. And it was pretty great. One against three? Not a problem. Not to be outdone, Sidney Crosby capped Already a subscriber? Log In. Subscribe now to get full access to the new sports page.
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Redblacks Stampeders. Featured Teams. Bayern Munich Dortmund. Celtic Rangers. Toggle navigation Log In. By Zach Harper Feb 1, The season has certainly been one to remember so far. The NBA product has been brilliant at times and really tough to consume, let alone analyze, at other times due to the health and safety protocols affecting availability on the court.
The NBA is powering through the best it can, hoping to eventually outrun the pandemic and get fans into all arenas responsibly which is not happening now for the teams allowing it to happen. We see the people not properly wearing their masks on TV. Already a subscriber? Log In. Subscribe now to get full access to the new sports page. Must read content, player grades, stuff you can't get anywhere else. View Plans Already a subscriber? Log in. View Plans.
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